Realistic? In KPMG report, FCR's projections for condo sales prices: $1217/sf in 2015, $1369/sf in 2019
The Empire State Development Corporation (ESDC) has finally released the Atlantic Yards market study by KPMG, which stated, in the words of an ESDC lawyer, that it was "not unreasonable" for the 14 residential buildings (sans Site 5 and Building 1) to be absorbed in the officially announced decade.
The upshot: Forest City Ratner is counting on sales prices of $1217/sf in 2015 up to $1369/sf in 2019.
Is that realistic? Keep in mind that the Kahr report commissioned by the Council of Brooklyn Neighborhoods was skeptical of even the $850/sf (in 2006 dollars) assumed in a 2006 KPMG report. The Kahr report cast huge doubts on the official timetable.
"Modest inflation factor"?
Even though the average high sales price in the three surrounding neighborhoods is $970/sf, the new KPMG market study states that only a "modest inflation factor" would allow the expected prices to be reached:
Mindful that these prices are based on transactions that have occurred over the past 12 months during a severe recession, the value ranges for Fort Greene ($480 - $720), Park Slope ($500 - $950) and Prospect Heights ($470 - $1,225) lend support for the FCRC’s projected sale prices when a modest inflation factor is applied given these future sales prices.
Market boost from location?
The KPMG report suggests that the location near transit and retail would add a premium to the condo prices. Unmentioned is the impact of a basketball arena down the block or continuing construction nearby.
The report states:
Given the timing of the Subject Property’s entry into the market place, with what was described earlier in this report about the vacancy and absorption rates, the market data supports that the high-end/luxury nature of these properties, coupled with the number of building amenities that will be provided, such as proximity to transportation, the fact that the buildings will be brand new, the amount of retail surrounding the property, etc, will create a higher demand for the Subject Property and allow the units to be absorbed more quickly than other comparable properties, as well as, obtain a premium on asking sales price.
The page (click to enlarge)
Redacted sales prices?
A footnote to the KPMG report states:
We have honored FCRC’s request to not release the projected sales prices. However, they are generally in the range of $1,200 to $1,400 per square foot.
However, the prices for the buildings at issue were not fully redacted--they were available once the page at issue was copied electronically.
Below is a list of buildings noted on the above page, the projected sales price/sf, and the year of completion.
5 $1,217 2015
7 $1,253 2016
8 $1,291 2017
9 $1,369 2019
11 $1,369 2019
12 $1,369 2019
13 $1,330 2019
14 $1,291 2017
The upshot: Forest City Ratner is counting on sales prices of $1217/sf in 2015 up to $1369/sf in 2019.
Is that realistic? Keep in mind that the Kahr report commissioned by the Council of Brooklyn Neighborhoods was skeptical of even the $850/sf (in 2006 dollars) assumed in a 2006 KPMG report. The Kahr report cast huge doubts on the official timetable.
"Modest inflation factor"?
Even though the average high sales price in the three surrounding neighborhoods is $970/sf, the new KPMG market study states that only a "modest inflation factor" would allow the expected prices to be reached:
Mindful that these prices are based on transactions that have occurred over the past 12 months during a severe recession, the value ranges for Fort Greene ($480 - $720), Park Slope ($500 - $950) and Prospect Heights ($470 - $1,225) lend support for the FCRC’s projected sale prices when a modest inflation factor is applied given these future sales prices.
Market boost from location?
The KPMG report suggests that the location near transit and retail would add a premium to the condo prices. Unmentioned is the impact of a basketball arena down the block or continuing construction nearby.
The report states:
Given the timing of the Subject Property’s entry into the market place, with what was described earlier in this report about the vacancy and absorption rates, the market data supports that the high-end/luxury nature of these properties, coupled with the number of building amenities that will be provided, such as proximity to transportation, the fact that the buildings will be brand new, the amount of retail surrounding the property, etc, will create a higher demand for the Subject Property and allow the units to be absorbed more quickly than other comparable properties, as well as, obtain a premium on asking sales price.
The page (click to enlarge)
Redacted sales prices?
A footnote to the KPMG report states:
We have honored FCRC’s request to not release the projected sales prices. However, they are generally in the range of $1,200 to $1,400 per square foot.
However, the prices for the buildings at issue were not fully redacted--they were available once the page at issue was copied electronically.
Below is a list of buildings noted on the above page, the projected sales price/sf, and the year of completion.
5 $1,217 2015
7 $1,253 2016
8 $1,291 2017
9 $1,369 2019
11 $1,369 2019
12 $1,369 2019
13 $1,330 2019
14 $1,291 2017
Wait? The value ranges for Prospect Heights is $470 - $1,225? I thought one major justification of the project was that the area was blighted. Why do we need such a massive infusion of taxpayer subsidies if there is such a strong real estate market in this small neighborhood?
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