Saturday, December 13, 2008

What fudge factor should we assign to Izod Center attendance figures? At least 25%

Now that even the New York Daily News has observed that the New Jersey Nets' "officially listed average home crowd of 16,098 seems suspiciously high," the question becomes: what fudge factor should we assign?

At least one-quarter, I'd suggest. A 25% discount on the 16,098 average would mean 12,074.

Consider that announced attendance of 16,722 Wednesday meant the Izod Center was 83.7% full (capacity 19,968), but I estimated the arena was at best 60% full. That would mean 11,980, or a more than 25% smaller crowd. But let's just take 25% off 16,722 and call it 12,542.

Well, at last night's game with the Toronto Raptors, the attendance was announced at 13,926, or 69.7% full. Apply the 25% fudge factor and we get 10,452, or 52.3% full.

Given photos like this and this of the crowd, that seems far more realistic--even generous.

6 comments:

  1. YOU estimate the crowd? Now you do crowd estimates too! What an amazing fellow!

    You should stick to what you know, and not try to peddle this crap. The crowds may be smaller, but you don't have the expertise or needed metrics to estimate them.

    What arrogance.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Mr. W.,

    And what's your expertise?

    ReplyDelete
  3. "Expertise or needed metrics?" Just look at the place. Have you been to a game recently, or checked out those photographs? The crowds are nowhere near what they claim they are, and a fair number of people who are there are paying less than face value -- or nothing at all.

    If attendance was what the Nets claim it is, they wouldn't be losing $30 million a year, would they?

    If you think Norman is arrogant, go read AtlanticYards.com instead.

    ReplyDelete
  4. the Nets have been caught inflating crowd estimates in the past.

    bobbo, are you saying the Nets get good crowds at the 'Zod?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Bobbo should sign his name as Bob Windrem.

    ReplyDelete
  6. In the last year at the Meadowlands, the team gave away 5200 comp tickets a game. That's a lot of trouble filling seats.
    http://atlanticyardsreport.blogspot.com/2009/12/forbes-nets-value-keeps-declining-5200.html

    ReplyDelete