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Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park graphic: what's built/what's coming + FAQ (pinned post)

As of 2009, another sign developer was estimating more rental units and fewer condos

Maybe, I wrote in February 2018, Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park would have more than 4,500 rentals and fewer than 1,930 condos, given previous documents and the shifting availability of subsidies, which now don't apply to condos.

In fact, a look at documents from 2006 and 2009 casts doubt that the condo total was ever a goal within the overall total of 6,430 residential units.

The December 2006 Modified General Project Plan stated the project would include approximately 5,325 to 6,430 residential units, with the former depending on more office space, which was and remains unlikely. Of the total residential units, "it is expected that 4,500 units would be rentals; the remaining units would be market-value condominiums." Within the rentals, there would be at least 2,250 units of affordable housing

However, in a December 2006 report for Empire State Development, created after consulting Forest City, the consultant KPMG described the project as 4,500 units of "affordable, middle-income, and market-rate housing," and 1,608 condominiums. That left a gap.

The June 2009 Modified General Project Plan offered the same language as 2006. However, an August 2009 report for Empire State Development by KPMG cited a total of 1,400 condos and 5,032 rentals.

A new 2009 estimate

I can now add a new December 2009 estimate, included in the City Participation Agreement that helps set how city contributions might be repaid. (Answer: unlikely.)

At that point, the project was to include nine towers with 50% affordable rentals, two towers 20% affordable, and three towers exclusively condos. Of the nine with 50% affordable rentals, four were also to include condos. (One tower--Building 1, which remains unbuilt--was to be office space, and Site 5 was not mentioned.)

That adds up to 6,585 total units, not 6,430. Among them were to be 2,250 affordable rentals and 2,975 market-rate rentals, for 5,225 total rentals, plus 1,360 condos.

So that's well above the 2,250 market-rate rentals long-estimated, and well below the 1,930 condos predicted.

2014 documents

This newly uncovered plan puts a new gloss on the developer-prepared chart below from 2014, which predicted 1,033 condos and 5,397 rentals. Both the chart and the map further below again ascribe office space to B1 and omit Site 5.

The map below has similar numbers, though two buildings differ slightly. Of course, B1 won't be built, and we're not sure what might be built at Site 5: mostly office space? mostly residential? some kind of mix?

In other words, the numbers should change. Stay tuned. This remains a "never say never project."