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Maybe Pacific Park will have more than 4,500 rentals and fewer than 1,930 condos. Consider past documents.

I wrote recently about how changes in the 421-a law have upended plans for condos beyond the already-constructed 550 Vanderbilt, with 278 units. How would Greenland Forest City Partners get to the planned 1,930 condos? (There are also 4,500 rentals planned, half of them below-market.)

Well, maybe they won't, even if the 421-a law changes again to encompass condos. In other words, the developer (previously just Forest City Ratner)  may not have ever aimed for that total

A look at 2006 and 2009 documents cast doubt that the condo total was ever a goal within the overall total of 6,430 residential units. Moreover, a second look at two documents prepared by the developer in 2014--a map and a chart--suggests plans for the full 1,930 units had yet to gel.

2006 numbers

From the December 2006 Modified General Project Plan states:
At full build-out, the Project would include approximately 5,325 to 6,430 residential units, depending on the amount of commercial office space provided; most of the buildings on the Project Site would contain a residential component and all of the buildings east of 6th Avenue would predominantly be residential. Of the total residential units, it is expected that 4,500 units would be rentalsthe remaining units would be market-value condominiums. The Project will generate at least 2,250 units of affordable housing on site for low-, moderate- and middle-income persons and families, and at least 30% of the units built on the Arena Block will be affordable.
(Emphases added)

2006 report

However, in a December 2006 report for Empire State Development, created after consulting Forest City, the consultant KPMG described the project thusly:
As of the Model Date, the Atlantic Yards combines an 18,000 seat sports and entertainment arena (15,520 bowl seats and 2,480 premium seats), landscaped open space, a site for a 164,652 SF boutique hotel, 200,090 SF of ground floor retail space, 376,798 SF of rentable office space (355,653 gross SF), 4,500 units of affordable, middle-income, and market-rate housing, and 1,608 condominiums.
2009 numbers

The June 2009 Modified General Project Plan offers the same language as 2006. It also states:
The Project will provide approximately 5,325 to 6,430 residential units. Of these, there would be approximately 4,500 rental units, 2,250 of which will be affordable to low-, moderate- and middle-income families. All of the housing, affordable and market rate, is needed to serve housing demands. 
(Emphasis added)

The language is hedging, in part. (And how about that blanket statement that all of the housing "is needed to serve housing demands"? It hasn't worked out that way.)

But the governing Development Agreement signed later that year says, as far as I can tell, only that 2,250 affordable units are required. It does not mandate a distribution of condos and rentals to match the expectation of the Modified GPP.

2009 report

An August 2009 report for Empire State Development by KPMG cited a total of 1,400 condos and 5,032 rentals, as noted in the graphics below:

2014 documents

Consider the developer-prepared chart below from 2014, which accurately described the first four buildings going forward. It includes 6,430 units in total, sure, and 2,250 affordable ones. But it actually contains 1,033 condos and 5,397 rentals. (The map further below has similar numbers, though two buildings differ slightly.)

Note that the chart and map both ascribe office space to Building 1 (aka Miss Brooklyn), which won't be built, and omit Site 5, to which the developer wants to move the bulk of B1. The ensuing giant project could have office, retail, hotel, and residential space. So there could be rental apartment or condos there after all.

Tentative 2014 projections

In other words, stay tuned. This remains a "never say never project."

Tentative 2014 projections