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When does Forest City estimate Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park completion? If stabilization is 2035, maybe 2033 (but what about 2025 affordable deadline?)

Last November, after Forest City Realty Trust indicated that the Pacific Park Brooklyn joint venture--presumably with the agreement of lead partner Greenland USA--would delay vertical development because of market conditions and other factors, the question arose: when will the project be finished?

CFO Bob O'Brien said that the firm's financial model "extends to 2035, 20 years from now," incorporating many factors, including cost of infrastructure, condo prices, and absorption of units.

That doesn't necessarily mean a completion date by 2035, but it does suggest that the project won't be done by 2025, the time by which the affordable housing is supposed to be done. The 2035 date likely represents stabilization of income, but when is that?

I had written that that's presumably no more than five years--maybe shorter--after which the last building is completed. That's probably shorter, given that it hardly makes sense, even for very large buildings (and the last ones are supposed to be large, 451 and 648 units, half below market), to take that long to fill up.

Project in Washington averages 14-month absorption

A 5/18/17 FCRT presentation on another project, The Yards in Washington contains the intriguing chart below, which indicates and average 14-month absorption for a series of 80/20 (20% affordable) buildings, the largest of which is 350 units.

Yes, Washington is a different market, and the buildings in Brooklyn would be larger, but the number of market-rate units (324 and 225) are not all that far off. So, if a 24-month absorption timeline is a reasonable working estimate in Brooklyn--remember, they don't want to wait too long for revenue to come in--that suggests a 2033 date for completion of the final building.

No one from Greenland Forest City has given an estimate, and representatives have demurred when asked. But that's what they do internally. So maybe they'll be asked at tomorrow's Atlantic Yards Community Development Corporation meeting.




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