Another caveat on (Manhattan) office space, the danger of return-to-work predictions, and the future of Site 5

Remote Work Is Here to Stay. Manhattan May Never Be the Same., the New York Times reports today. Here's the crux:

A year after the coronavirus sparked an extraordinary exodus of workers from office buildings, what had seemed like a short-term inconvenience is now clearly becoming a permanent and tectonic shift in how and where people work. Employers and employees have both embraced the advantages of remote work, including lower office costs and greater flexibility for employees, especially those with families.

Still, about 90 percent of Manhattan office workers are working remotely, a rate that has remained unchanged for months, according to a recent survey of major employers by the Partnership for New York City, an influential business group, which estimated that less than half of office workers would return by September.

Across Midtown and Lower Manhattan, the country’s two largest central business districts, there has never been more office space — 16.4 percent — for lease, much higher than in past crises, including after the Sept. 11 terror attacks in 2001 and the Great Recession in 2008.

As I've written, Brooklyn does have some advantage over Manhattan for office space, given that it's likely closer to more employees. But... there's already a glut of new office space in Brooklyn and much talk about converting existing office space and hotels into residential.

So that makes it ever less likely, at least in the short-term, to contemplate constructing a new office building at Site 5, opposite the arena block, long contemplated for a giant two-tower project.

The knock-on effect of the decline of office work means lower property taxes and question marks about city services and the numerous businesses associated with the commercial office ecosystem.

One industry player quote in the Times suggested that the fall will represent a rebound and, indeed, there are drawbacks to all-remote offices.

Still, "only 15 percent of workers have returned to offices in New York City and the surrounding suburbs, up slightly from 10 percent last summer," according to one analyst--and that 's far less than previously predicted.

Bottom line: the pandemic has upended things, including predictions.