Will new Belmont arena take concerts and events from Barclays Center? Well, there's always opening year buzz, but also new arena hype (plus potential snags).

In How The Islanders’ Future Home UBS Arena Could Affect Business At Barclays Center, Peter Schwartz of NY Sports Day suggested 11/13/20 that the operators of the Brooklyn arena, BSE Global should be "concerned that a state-of-the art arena was being built that would create competition in the marketplace."

And while Madison Square Garden and the Prudential Center are anchored--at least in pre-COVID times--by location, and "it’s not yet known what lies ahead for the Nassau Coliseum after the Islanders leave," Schwartz suggests that the Belmont arena might cut into Barclays' market.

Wait a sec: while I think there's a reasonable chance that the Nassau Coliseum will be fatally wounded by the UBS arena, since the new venue can host smaller events that would fit into a downsized Coliseum, but, if not, the Coliseum will cut into operators' optimistic plans for UBS.

But arena projections, based on the Barclays and Coliseum example, are typically overoptimistic, and we should take UBS Arena hype with a grain of salt.

(All this presumes a vaccine and a general return to venue attendance.)

A new venue > Barclays?

Schwartz quotes Michael Neuman, Executive Vice-President and Managing Partner of Scout Sports, the sports and entertainment division of media services agency Horizon Media:

“New sports and entertainment venues are the shiny new toys that sporting events want to associate with,” said Neuman. “Just look at the rotation of marquee sporting events and tentpole events that find themselves hosted at new venues within a few years of their opening around the country. The competition to host these events could create better financial arrangements for the rights holders who make those decisions.”

That's true, and part of why Barclays Center, in its first year, had such huge events, with artists like Barbra Streisand, Justin Bieber, and the Rolling Stones, plus, of course, eight nights of Jay-Z. 

But Barclays didn't make money, partly because it overstaffed for the opening but also because, apparently, it struck deals to attract such events.

So Neuman's right that a new arena attracts events, but it depends on the negotiations--and the first year or two are not a template for the future.

Savings vs. Barclays?

Here's what might be the difference: an easier to path to load-in/load-out for larger acts:

“An artist that plays three nights at UBS versus Barclays can put an extra $400,000+ to the bottom line with savings yielded from the architectural benefits at UBS,” said Neuman. Yes, MSG is MSG and if you can sell out a 18,000+ seat venue, you play MSG when you visit New York, but Long Island is an affluent market that has been underserved.”

Another factor: the Oak View Group includes Irving Azoff, whose MSG Entertainment is part of the Madison Square Garden Company, which could presumably steer tours from Manhattan to Long Island.

Still,, the audience markets only partially overlap. Those who might have driven in or taken the train from Long Island to Barclays would, presumably, prefer the Belmont arena. But that also depends on parking costs and shuttle bus smoothness at Belmont. 

It also depends on a new Elmont station that, as far as I know, has not started. Meanwhile, Barclays also draws those taking subway and LIRR transportation to the Brooklyn hub at Atlantic Terminal, and a lot of people have experience going there. 

So while UBS Arena surely will attract Long Islanders, and may put the Coliseum out of business, I suspect there's enough of a population and market differentiation for it to have relatively less impact on Barclays. 

But we'd have to assess after at least one year.