Forest City Ratner says that’s not the case. According to a fact sheet sent from Dan Klores Communications, a public relations firm representing the developer, the project will generate more than $5.6 billion in new tax revenues over the next 30 years and create a net positive fiscal impact of more than $1.3 billion. The fact sheet also states that the project will uphold the promise to ensure affordable housing units and create 8,000 permanent jobs. A spokesman for the real-estate group was not available at press time. The representative from Dan Klores Communications said he could not speak on specifics concerning the project.The figures in my FAQ yesterday were a little bit different.
Will the project bring in $6 billion in new tax revenues?
That was the notorious $6 billion lie touted by sports economist Andrew Zimbalist, modified to $5.6 billion and $4.4 billion (net), touted in legal papers by FCR executives and a lawyer as a state estimate--but later withdrawn.
The most recent estimates by the ESDC suggest nearly $1.2 billion in net revenue, but that depends on an unrealistic ten-year buildout of the project, highly doubtful office jobs, an unlikely full buildout of the project of nearly 8 million square feet (the development agreement allows for a much smaller project, less than 5.2 million square feet) and a likely underestimate of costs.
Will the project include 15,000 construction jobs or, as the developer's more recent promotional material contends, 17,000 construction jobs?
No, it would be 17,000 job-years, or 1700 jobs a year for a decade--or, if the project takes 25 years, 680 jobs a year. (The ESDC says 16,427 new direct job years.) And that's only if the project is built as announced. It could be some 44% smaller--and thus the figure for jobs could be much, much lower.
Would there be 8000 permanent jobs? 4000?
There were once supposed to be 10,000 jobs, a figure that was bogus from the start. The figure of 8000 jobs promulgated by Forest City Ratner relies on a completely unrealistic configuration of office space, for which there is no market.
The ESDC's current estimate of about 4000 jobs should be discounted by one-third given the office market. Building service and retail jobs would be dependent on a full buildout of the project, and also could be cut significantly.