Nets/arena CEO: concerts set to boom (sure) and are "generally sold out" (nah); evidence from first four years and then 2017

The concerts are coming back to the Barclays Center, for sure, as John Abbamondi, CEO of the Brooklyn Nets and the arena operating company, said recently on a podcast.

Abbamondi also predicted there'd be a burst in concerts over next years as musical acts get back on the road.
However, not true re concerts that "they're generally sold out"
Averaged <12K in debut year (with biggest concerts)
Tho likely to be increased attendance in coming year https://t.co/LpUnPpgRlh pic.twitter.com/20zBDomPMS

— Norman Oder (@AYReport) June 11, 2021

Here's the original source for the concert attendance over the first four years, starting in 2012, a disclosure--released in 2016--to buyers of refinanced arena bonds.

The arena can seat "up to 19,000" for concerts, given the ability to put seats on what is otherwise an event floor, though it's harder to sell seats behind a stage if it's oriented toward one of the arena. The capacity for basketball is 17,732.

So while it's unlikely to have that many tickets for sale, even if they were only selling, say, 15,000 tickets, the available evidence in the first four years suggests they weren't "sold out."

Concerts generally attracted more than 10,000 people, though in the first nine months several sellouts boosted average attendance toward 12,000.

It seems that arena CEOs, from Brett Yormark to David Levy to now Abbamondi, are not exactly tethered to the truth.

That said, nover the next couple of years, given the pent-up demand, the Barclays Center concert attendance should boom, presuming confidence about vaccinations and no new strain of COVID-19.

Evidence from 2017

And, thanks to another disclosure to bond investors, we learn that event attendance is quite variable, for both concerts and other events. The chart below, from the second half of 2017, offers more details than is typical, and it's telling.

Looking at concerts, over two shows Kendrick Lamar averaged a little over 14,000 tickets, Roger Waters barely broke 11,000, Paul McCartney drew 15,000, and J Cole nearly 13,000

Over single shows, Katy Perry sold 9,055 tickets and Bruno Mars 15,370, while Ed Sheeran averaged about 13,300 over three shows.

Cirque du Soleil drew 22,834 for 7 shows, or average of 3,262 tickets, while Disney on Ice drew 60,047 for 9 shows, for an average of 6,672.

Two boxing events drew under 8,500 tickets, as did two Legends Classic events, while the preseason NIT and the Barclays Center Classic, perhaps aimed more at television drew even less.

The prediction

Consider the 2006 Final Environmental Impact Statement, written before the arena was downsized from the Frank Gehry-designed arena, suitable for both major league basketball and hockey, to the Ellerbe Becket arena (modified by SHoP), suitable only for basketball.

The document from Empire State Development Corporation, stated, in the Executive Summary:

The arena would host a variety of events. The arena would seat 18,000 persons for basketball games. While there is the potential for additional seating capacity for non-game events (to 19,925 seats if wheelchair seating is replaced by regular seating), Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) accessibility, production equipment, and line of sight, operational and staging requirements would in almost all instances limit attendance at non-basketball events to well under 18,000. Non-game events are expected to attract fewer spectators than basketball events, with attendance generally ranging from 5,000 persons to 15,000 persons.

(Emphasis added)

That's a reasonable range, but we now know that attendance clusters toward the lower end of the range for most evens that are not concerts. And we know that 15,000 for a concert is a big deal.

Concerts bring the profits

Nearly all the events were profitable, according to 2016 documents,

Concerts made the most profit, both in sheer numbers as well as a percentage of revenue, peaking at $12.8 million in the second year of operation but dipping to $6.3 million in the next year. In the arena's second year of operation, boxing and family shows were slightly in the red.


So we can see why arena managers have long talked about focusing on "big" concerts. That's where the money is. 

Beyond concerts. a superstar-laden Brooklyn Nets should sell well, and/or reap higher ticket prices. And, now that the New York Liberty play at Barclays, that's another opportunity to build a fan base, with more affordable tickets.

The impact of smaller crowds

I should point out, again, that one reason that Barclays Center operations haven't been that impactful as once feared is that visions of an oft-full 20,000-seat arena never came to fruition. 

First, the arena was downsized. Second, most events don't sell out. 

And third, the significant slice of fans expected to drive from New Jersey and clog Brooklyn streets looking for parking, fell away, given the New Jersey Nets' long goodbye. The Brooklyn Nets reconstituted a new fan base, with a good number from Brooklyn, willing to walk or take public transit.