Sunday, November 29, 2009

Lawyer for developers: expect a crisis every eight to ten years

From the Spring 2009 issue of Development magazine, the quarterly publication of NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association:
[John W. Waldeck, partner and chair of the Real Estate Group at the Cleveland-based law firm Walter & Haverfield] observed that the commercial real estate industry is in the midst of its third major crisis in 30 years (the first two being the period from ’77 to ’80 and again in the early ‘90s). “If you’re an entrepreneur, is this what you have to anticipate? That once every eight to 10 years the industry will go through the ringer?” The answer clearly being yes, he advised owners and developers to “build up a substantial war chest.”
In other words, even industry peers might say that Atlantic Yards developer Forest City Ratner and the Empire State Development Corporation aren't realistic in anticipating a ten-year buildout for the project. I've suggested several reasons for skepticism.

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