Breaking down the AY fiscal analysis: why if you follow NYC EDC in your personal economics you could go to jail
Noticing New York's Michael D.D. White demolished Lago's arguments, suggesting some very helpful rules regarding both kitchen renovations and megadevelopments.
NYC EDC's "analysis"
So let's talk "economic and fiscal impact analysis." That was the exercise by which the New York City Economic Development Corporation (NYC EDC) concluded that Atlantic Yards would bring more than half a billion dollars in revenue to the city over 30 years, a figure touted enthusiastically by NYC EDC president Seth Pinsky at Friday's AY oversight hearing.
I don't want to be accused of "blocking the program, with these complicated questions" (to quote the disrespectful Rev. Herbert Daughtry), so let me break it down.
To NYC EDC, "economic and fiscal impact analysis" concerns revenue you take in. That's it. No costs, no subsidies.
OK, I have just conducted an "economic and fiscal impact analysis" regarding my personal future revenue stream. After 20 years, I conclude, I will easily become a millionaire.
Oops--I forgot to factor in rent, food, and tons of other things, including taxes. If I don't pay taxes, well, I go to jail.
It renders my "economic and fiscal impact analysis" slightly flawed.
Both the NYC EDC and IBO analyses suffer from fundamental flaws regarding arena revenue, as I pointed out in February.
Both assumed that 30% of New Jersey season ticket holders would be retained. However, as I pointed out, there's reason to believe the team now has a lower attendance base, thus sending a smaller percentage of New Jersey-based fans to Brooklyn and lowering new revenues for New York City and State.