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RentHop: new Brooklyn Crossing and Plank Road drive up median rents in area (no surprise)

Pacific Park Complexes Drive Up Rents Near Atlantic Ave Station: Study, Patch reported 5/3/22, essentially repurposing a 5/2/22 RentHop study headlined 1BR Rents Skyrocketed At Major MTA Stops, citing the role of two new buildings, 662 Pacific St. (Plank Road) and 18 Sixth Ave. (Brooklyn Crossing).

"Rents skyrocketed at major subway stops as concessions went away and gross rents soared with strong rental demand," said RentHop. Their methodology:

To calculate the median net effective rents for the map above, we used RentHop’s rental data for unfurnished one-bedroom apartments from January 1 through March 31, 2021 & 2022, MTA Lines and Stops data, and GIS data for subway stops compiled by CUNY – Baruch College and NYC Open Data. To get accurate prices near the subway stops, we looked at least 50 non-duplicated rental listings within 800 meters (0.5 miles) of a subway stop and then calculated the median rents. If there were less than 50 non-duplicated listings. If not, the radius from the stop was increased to up to 2,000 meters (1.2 miles) and the data was resampled to ensure enough unique listings were used when calculating the median.

Their citation:

In Brooklyn, one-bedroom median rent rose 21.7% at Bergen St (2-3-4, $3,225) and 30.5% at Atlantic Av – Barclay Center (2-3-4-5, $3,775), partially due to two major new developments, 662 Pacific Street and 18 Sixth Avenue in Prospect Heights.

Median rents, or all rents?

Commented Phillip Godzin on the Patch article:

From RentHop

This framing makes no sense. Two brand new buildings have driven up *median* rent, but it's responsible for rent hikes in other nearby buildings. If anything, rent in the other buildings would have been higher without these openings, as the people who were able to rent in these buildings would otherwise bid up rents elsewhere.
He has a point: the new buildings affect overall statistics. 

As to their effect on neighboring buildings, theoretically increased supply of similar product should tamp down increases, but the competition may not be simply in the neighborhood but among buildings of similar price/quality.

Drilling down

Rents may have risen just in the past month or so. From Patch:

In both buildings — known as Plank Road and Brooklyn Crossing, respectively — it costs around $3,650 per month to rent a one bedroom apartment, according to RentHop. The complexes have each set aside units for the city's affordable housing lottery, though the price-point for those is still relatively high.

That said, it seems unlikely that the affordable 1-BRs--$2,273 and $2,290--are being factored in.

According to StreetEasy, Plank Road has no current 1-BR listings, but 16 out of 28 past listings have been for over $4,000, albeit in some cases after price cuts or with concessions.

According to StreetEasy, of the eight current Brooklyn Crossing 1-BR listings, all but one exceed $4,000, and the one that doesn't is $3,995, after a $100 discount.