Killing the city? New federal office guidelines suggest very limited mass transit, elevator use

Effectively, the CDC recommends that midtown Manhattan remain a ghost town indefinitely. https://t.co/FHRvQoxYg5

— Justin Davidson (@JDavidsonNYC) May 29, 2020

in essence: the CDC is recommending the end of offices, the end of mass transit, the end of carpooling... and basically the end of cities https://t.co/GlIy5NbaSB

— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) May 29, 2020

New guidelines from the federal Centers for Disease Control have been summarized ominously, such as in the New York Times article headlined C.D.C. Recommends Sweeping Changes to American Offices, with the subheading "Temperature checks, desk shields and no public transit: The guidelines would remake office life. Some may decide it’s easier to keep employees at home."

Any wiggle room?

Actually, the guidelines, COVID-19 Employer Information for Office Buildings, seem to leave some wiggle room:

For employees who commute to work using public transportation or ride sharing, consider offering the following support:

• Offer employees incentives to use forms of transportation that minimize close contact with others, such as offering reimbursement for parking for commuting to work alone or single-occupancy rides.
• Allow employees to shift their hours so they can commute during less busy times.
• Ask employees to wash their hands as soon as possible after their trip.

(Emphasis added)

My reading of the bolded (and highlighted) section is a partial OK for use of mass transit. After all, if the CDC were against any mass transit use, such as for essential workers, then wouldn't it offer explicit guidance?

As summarized in Politico's New York Playbook today, the reopening of New York City leaves many unanswered questions:

How are all those workers supposed to get around without exposing themselves to infection? Neither the city nor the state-run MTA have offered concrete transportation plans for reopening a city where most residents rely on mass transit.

And Mayor Bill de Blasio rather unwisely--and ungenerously--suggested that people would "make their own choices" based on their own comfort level, as if that's not driven by personal financial circumstances.

Drastic changes

The Times article summarized the rather drastic guidelines, involving at-work checks of temperature and symptoms, desks spaced apart or separated by shields, and face coverings worn at all times:

If followed, the guidelines would lead to a far-reaching remaking of the corporate work experience. They even upend years of advice on commuting, urging people to drive to work by themselves, instead of taking mass transportation or car-pooling, to avoid potential exposure to the virus.

The Times points out that it's "impractical, if not near impossible" to limit elevator occupancy to maintain social distancing--unless, I guess, elevators are used one per person, which seems impossible.

The bottom line

Whether in the most draconian interpretation or not, the guidelines on commuting and elevator use would have drastic implications for work in high-rise buildings, and in residential high-rises, for that matter.

And it raises questions for any real estate developer planning to start a building, or with one in progress.

An "existential crisis"

In the New York Post, Nicole Gelinas of The Manhattan Institute wrote 5/25/20 NYC’s urban model faces existential crisis in post-pandemic world:

The answer won’t be more driving. A 30 percent drop in pre-COVID transit would mean a doubling of vehicles on Midtown’s streets — a total standstill.
So: What happens to all those offices sitting eerily empty? It isn’t only a short-term problem. Even if we get a vaccine tomorrow, many commuters have found that they like staying home. 

The changes have "huge implications, too, for restaurants, stores, theater, hotels," which depend on business travel and commuters, as well as the outer-borough restaurant and retail, given the role of Manhattan salaries.

She suggests that "Manhattan may break up into smaller clusters," with better-off workers at home and middle-income workers in offices, but it would be "a rough transition," especially since it's not cheap to convert office space into residential space

Then there are the knock-on effects: shocks to local and regional income and property taxes. She argues:

New York needs to be flexible now: Temporarily furlough non-frontline workers so it can afford to bring back some later. Sponsor aggressive testing on how safely people can stand next to each other, masked, for now, on transit. Let restaurants start deploying open-air dining to give people a reason to stay this summer.