National poll: 61% of sports fans (and 72% of total) won't go to games without a vaccine; no large gatherings until 2021?

Nearly 3 of 4 Americans Say They Won’t Attend Games Without Coronavirus Vaccine Developed, stated a 4/9/20 press release from the Seton Hall Sports Poll:

Asked what they would do if the leagues resumed play before the development of a vaccine, 72 percent of Americans said they would not attend games, with 12 percent saying they would if social distancing could be maintained. Only 13 percent said they would feel safe attending as in the past. Among sports fans the number drops to a still significant 61 percent.

Note that late 2021 is the announced target for an approved vaccine, science marches on. Previously, Zeke Emanuel, a key advisor on #COVID19 issues, also suggested that larger gatherings would return until "fall 2021 at the earliest."

In the interim, note that it wouldn't be easy to maintain social distancing both in competition and in sports facilities, which typically have lines for concessions and for bathrooms. Even selling every other seat leaves people close to each other in rows.

Is it more likely some version of fan-less sports returns, aimed at television? Yes, but... as WFAN's Steve Lichtenstein wrote, the participants are at risk, so "who wants to play this kind of Russian Roulette? Only those who have proven to be immune can safely return to normalcy."

Also, as noted by SI, Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti told staffers that "large gatherings," including sporting events, may not be resume until 2021, according to the Los Angeles Times.

"Our Pandemic Summer"

A 4/14/20 article by the Atlantic's astute Ed Yong points to "Our Pandemic Summer." He writes:

As I wrote last month, the only viable endgame is to play whack-a-mole with the coronavirus, suppressing it until a vaccine can be produced. With luck, that will take 18 to 24 months. During that time, new outbreaks will probably arise. Much about that period is unclear, but the dozens of experts whom I have interviewed agree that life as most people knew it cannot fully return.

That means mass testing, for which the country does not yet have the capacity--and which won't be available for months. The medical system--including drugs, hospitals, and health care workers--is stretched. We don't have a tracking system for contacts.

At some point social distancing could be deployed as a periodic tactic. Yong writes:

Stay-at-home orders might lift first, allowing friends and family to reunite. Small businesses could reopen with limitations: Offices might run on shifts and still rely heavily on teleworking, while restaurants and bars could create more space between tables. Schools could restart once researchers determine if children actually spread the virus.

Big events? Well, Yong cites one plan in which groups exceeding 50 are banned until a vaccine or an effective treatment emerge:

That will be especially challenging in large cities: An average Manhattan street or subway car is the equivalent of a mass gathering. Elsewhere, concerts, conferences, summer camps, political rallies, large weddings, and major sporting events may all have to be suspended for at least this year. “It’s hard for me to imagine anyone going to Fenway Park and sitting with 30,000 fans—that will almost surely be a bad idea,” said Ashish Jha, an internist and public-health expert at Harvard. 

The same goes for sports venues in New York.