Forbes: Would A New York Islanders Arena In Belmont Leave County-Owned Nassau Coliseum In Ruins? (my take: likely)

OK, if the local media (beyond my Daily News op-ed), won't write about it, at least a Forbes contributor will:

@leeigel: Would NY Islanders #Belmont Arena Leave County-Owned #NassauColiseum In Ruins? https://t.co/BKPZUwiNKa via @forbes
My answer in @NYDailyNews 2 months ago: kinda likely https://t.co/ysVHOGznaphttps://t.co/f4YMtR7nBS

— Norman Oder (@AYReport) March 26, 2019

From Lee Igel's article:

With all of that winning, of course, there has to be something on the losing side. In this case, it will be the Coliseum that comes up short. And that means Nassau County coffers will take a hit. Millions of dollars in major events-associated revenue would almost assuredly go to the new arena. Millions of dollars more in venue operator fees, such as from the likes of current holder BSE Global, could also dry up.

Note that the arena operator--now BSE Global, formerly Nassau Events Center, led by Forest City Ratner--has to pay a minimum to the county, which owns the venue. From Newsday, 3/31/17:

Ratner’s lease calls for Nassau Events Center to pay Nassau 8 percent of all annual revenue generated by the Coliseum, including tickets and concessions, and 12.75 percent of parking. The deal guarantees Nassau a minimum of $4.4 million in the first year and $334 million over the next 49 years.

So there's an incentive to fill the arena or, perhaps, to renegotiate the lease.

Possible relocation


Also this, from Igel:

To be sure, the threat of franchise relocation in any sport is always a real possibility. But it is not likely in this case for the Islanders. While there are a handful of cities that would be receptive to hosting an NHL franchise, the prospects for it coming at the expense of relocating one based in the New York metropolitan area are quite low.

Beyond the optics, the league isn't likely to approve a franchise moving out of the nation's top media market. Any move to a different market would conceivably have to include a broadcast rights deal that is at least as lucrative as is available in New York. There are few, if any, potential relocation cities on that list.

That's a big issue: there are arenas elsewhere, with potential fan bases--Quebec City, Kansas City--but likely not the broadcast rights deal.