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Will middle school start in July 2019 and be done by June 2021? Not implausible, but don't bet on it. (Cost rising, history of delay)

So, will the long awaited middle school in Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park, in the 664 Pacific tower (aka B15) east of Sixth Avenue between Dean and Pacific streets, launch in July 2019? Maybe, but it's hardly a lock.

A post yesterday on the web site of MS One Brooklyn backers, Construction of middle school at Atlantic Yards currently set to begin July 2019, states:
Since the time of the January 2016 announcement that the DOE facility at Atlantic Yards will be a middle school, the anticipated construction schedule has shifted, with the developer Greenland Forest City Partners at various times citing factors such as the change in the New York State 421a tax abatement, and the need to negotiate a license agreement with a neighboring property for access.
According to the most recent (FY2015-2019) Capital Plan for the New York City School Construction Authority, construction is now expected to begin in July 2019, with an estimated completion date of June 2021. The school is listed on page C8 of the Capital Plan as I.S. 653, with a capacity of 640 seats.
"The schedule may be subject to change," according to the post and, indeed, that's been the history.  So I'd call it "estimated," rather than "expected." 

That most recent Capital Plan is dated February 2018, and we've had three months with no peep from anyone official about the school. The building plan was unveiled in December 2015, and there's been a history of delays.

Model by Marvel Architects, with school at base
As I wrote last month, a document from Empire State Development stated that the school must be completed within two years after construction starts--not three, as previously stated-- presumably after excavation. 

But nothing has started on that site, apparently because of a continued dispute with a neighbor regarding access to shore up construction. So that makes 2021 the best-case scenario for the school, with that time window narrowing.

So far developer Greenland Forest City Partners has stated that it's working on the B4 site, at the northeast corner of the arena block, with construction perhaps to start in the second quarter of 2019. 

That said, the other sites where construction is plausible are the three terra firma sites, including B15, plus B12 and B13 on the southeast corner of the project map.

Cost rising, previous estimates of timing/cost

The cost of the school has risen, as the timetable has changed, and the funding gap increased. It's designated as DSF0000798239 in the February 2018 Capital Plan. Total cost: $126.15 million. Funding requested in the Capital Plan: $100.74 million. Funding needed for completion: $25.41 million.

Consider previous versions of the Capital Plan, available from the School Construction Authority. The February 2017 version (again, p. C8) said that construction was supposed to begin in July 2017, with completion in August 2020. The total cost was to be $114.29 million, with $104.57 million requested, leaving $9.72 million needed for completion.

The March 2016 version (again, p. C8) said that construction (of P.S./I.S. 653, with 640 seats) was supposed to begin in June 2016, with completion in August 2019. The total cost was to be $91.1 million, with $88.51 million requested, leaving $2.6 million needed for completion.

The January 2016 version (again, p. C8) said that construction (of P.S./I.S. 653, with 640 seats) was supposed to begin in November 2016, with completion in August 2019. The total cost was to be $83.07 million, with $80.71 million requested in the capital plan, leaving $2.36 million needed for completion.

Interestingly enough, the previously planned larger hybrid school--before the building launch was announced--once had a more delayed buildout and deadline, plus a larger budget to start. The Spring 2015 version (p. C7) said that construction (of Project 1, DSF0000798239, a 757-seat school) was supposed to begin in June 2019, with completion in September 2022. The total cost was to be $103.66 million, with $92.7 million requested in the capital plan, leaving $10.96 million needed for completion.

The February 2014 version (p. C7) was similar. It said that construction (of Project 1, DSF0000798239, a 757-seat school) was supposed to begin in June 2019, with completion in September 2022. The total cost was to be $103.66 million, with $92.7 million requested in the capital plan, leaving $10.96 million needed for completion.

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