Mayoral candidate Mamdani comes to the Vanderbilt Yard (!) to promote his plan for 200K affordable homes, but doesn't mention Atlantic Yards. Too complicated?

Yesterday, Zohran Mamdani, an Astoria/Long Island City-based New York State Assemblymember (link) and a Democratic candidate (link) in the 2025 mayoral primary who identifies as a Democratic Socialist, issued a call to "build 200,000 new, permanently affordable union built, rent stabilized homes over the next 10 years, tripling what we're currently set to build." 

To do that, he said in the brief video below, "Any 100% affordable project gets fast tracked. No more pointless delays. We're gonna unleash the public sector, but we're still going to need more housing. That means taller buildings near subway stations, upzoning wealthy neighborhoods, and eliminating the requirement to build parking lots."

Today I'm announcing a plan to unleash the public sector and build the housing we desperately need.

As Mayor, I will triple New York City's production of permanently affordable, union-built, rent-stabilized homes, constructing 200,000 new units over the next decade. pic.twitter.com/PAANktchRq

— Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@ZohranKMamdani) February 3, 2025

What, exactly?

The devil, of course, is in the details. Given that "affordable" means households pay 30% of their income, what would the income range be? 

(The Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park buildings visible behind Mamdani, by the way, mostly have 30% affordable units, albeit aimed at middle-income household.)

If "we should guide these changes through comprehensive planning, not a piecemeal approach," as he says, how does that comport with the professed fast track?

Mamdani plans to use "the City’s public land as a source of subsidy, with numerous opportunities to build" and upzone areas, including those cut out of Mayor Eric Adams's City of Yes plan, to allow for more capacity. That, of course, requires City Council assent.

The Atlantic Yards angle

Prospect Heights resident Sean Sullivan observed on X/Twitter, "This was obviously shot at the site of the long delayed final portion of the Atlantic Yards / Pacific Park development (i.e. my backyard), which seems appropriate."

Indeed, Mamdani not only stood on Vanderbilt Avenue just below Atlantic Avenue, as shown in the screenshot above, he walked south down Vanderbilt into lower-scale Prospect Heights. 

He said nothing about Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park, perhaps because he doesn't know much and perhaps because it's both appropriate and not. 

Unofficial rendering of approved plans

Yes, this is a site approved for six huge towers, and they qualify as "taller buildings near subway stations, upzoning wealthy neighborhoods, and eliminating... parking lots."

But they haven't been built, because the upzoning--actually, an override by New York State of city zoning--was insufficient to make it economically worthwhile, at least over multiple political and business/interest rate and subsidy/tax break cycles, as well as developers facing their own economic pressures.

Perhaps the developers overreached and the state failed to vet those plans?

The zoning override was justified by the expected cost of infrastructure--a platform to support vertical construction--as well as the inclusion of affordable units. 

Though New York State allowed "affordable" to have a broad definition--participating in a government program--rather than the mix of low-, moderate-, and middle-income units promised in the 2005 Affordable Housing Memorandum of Understanding, that wasn't enough.

What now?

Now Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park is an inflection point. Could a mayor, offering additional subsidies, get the buildings built? Maybe. Would "100% affordable" work? Would it be appropriate to allot a disproportionate amount of bonding and subsidy capacity?

Does the developer--whatever pending joint venture now might surface--deserve additional buildable square footage, which they likely will seek, perhaps based on Greenland USA's previous proposals, gaining free bulk (land!) when earlier developers had to bid for development rights over the railyard?

Unofficial rendering of proposals

If this is truly a public sector project, could/should New York State find a way to get the land back?

After all, the project developer, based on a 2014 settlement agreement negotiated by the coalition BrooklynSpeaks, is supposed to pay $2,000/month for each of the 876 units not delivered by May 2025. At $21 million a year, that could add up. 

Surely, however, the pending joint venture wants to renegotiate. In other words, it's complicated.

How can Mamdani's plan be financed? 

amNY first reported:

First, Mamdani says he would push Albany to lift a cap on the city’s municipal bond capacity so it can secure $70 billion in municipal bonds. Those funds would come on top of the $30 billion the city has already pledged to spend on housing production, bringing its total commitment to $100 billion.

Entrepreneur Reza Chowdhury was skeptical:

How do you plan on borrowing another $70B without exceeding the city's existing debt limit which is pegged by the price of real estate? Also, you'd be increasing the debt service by 70% with service exceeding 15% of tax revenues as required by the New York City Transitional Finance Authority."

Note that the New York City Comptroller, Brad Lander (another candidate) suggests "the [current] debt limit does not fully reflect the City’s ability to assume and service debt to finance infrastructure," but the increase, of course, would be subject to debate. 

Some praised "Left YIMBYism," while others warned of the tension between production and the commitment to build union and ensure the units are rent-stabilized. Others suggested that relying on the public sector was unwise.

Here is his policy paper, Housing By and For New York, which cites plans to "significantly expand programs that serve families with the greatest need:

• HPD’s Senior Affordable Rental Apartments (SARA), which produces 100% affordable low-income housing for seniors.
• HPD’s Extremely Low and Low-Income Affordability (ELLA), which produces 100% affordable housing for families who earn less than $72,000 for a family of four
• HRA’s Master Lease Program, which allows the City to pool its rental assistance programs (like CityFHEPS) to create project-based, subsidized housing for families at risk of eviction and/or living in the shelter program.