Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Is Building 2 behind? To finish and open modular tower by December, Forest City has to more than double current pace

From AtlanticYards.com
The buildout of the B2 tower, the first modular building in the Atlantic Yards project, seems well below pace to open by the target date of December 2014, and it doesn't look like weather can be blamed.

According to the most recent statistics from developer Forest City Ratner (right, and in the 3/31/14 Atlantic Yards Construction Alert, below), approximately 81 modules had been delivered by 3/31/14, an increase of 22 (a rate of 2.2/day) over the previous two-week period.

According to the 3/17/14 Construction Alert, there were about 59 modules delivered for B2, which meant 14 modules (a rate of 1.4/day) had been delivered in the previous ten working days.

Well below potential rate

Both sets of statistics indicate a pace far slower than the 80 (8 modules/day) delivery pattern over ten working days that would represent full capacity.

To finish the tower, Forest City Ratner must deliver and install 930 modules, or 849 additional mods. At 8 modules/day, that could be accomplished in a little over 106 working days, or fewer than 22 five-day weeks. That would get the building finished well before the December 2014 target date.

At the pace of 2.2 modules a day, however, it would take nearly 386 working days, or 77.2 five-day weeks. That would push completion well into the middle of 2015.

To open the building by the end of 2014, let's assume they need all the modules by the end of the first week in December. That gives Forest City 36 weeks, or 180 working days, from 3/31/14, to deliver and install 849 additional modules.

That would means a pace of 4.7 modules a day, which is more than double the most recent rate. The pace has already increased slightly, so the situation is clearly fluid and it would be premature to conclude the building will be late.

But I'll bet there's some cause for concern. The next set of statistics should appear next Monday.

Problem, or strategy?

It could be that there are snags at the modular factory and/or on site that delay the delivery and installation of modules.

Or maybe there aren't any problems, and the delay is part of a strategy. Perhaps Forest City recognizes that the delivery and installation of 8 modules/day will cause traffic and neighborhood problems, and they're waiting to have the pending deal with new investor the Greenland Group finished before they ramp up the process.

Atlantic Yards Construction Alert March 31 2014

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