Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Module total at B2 reaches 111, but tower still seems behind schedule for December opening

According to the most recent statistic from developer Forest City Ratner, in the latest two-week Construction Alert (below) approximately 111 modules had been delivered by the end of last week, an increase of 30 over the total after the previous two-week period.

That means they're still behind schedule, though the gap is recoverable.

The pace, 3 modules per day, represents a step up from the pace over the previous two weeks (2.2/day) and the two weeks before that (1.4/day). Still, they're well below full capacity, which is 80 (8 modules/day) over ten working days.

To finish the tower, which has approximately 930 modules, Forest City Ratner must deliver and install some 819 additional mods. At 8 modules/day, that could be accomplished in a little over 103 working days, or fewer than 21 five-day weeks. That would get the building finished by mid-September, well before the December 2014 target date.

At the most recent pace of 3 modules/day, however, it would take 273 working days, or nearly 55 weeks--more than a year--to finish the tower.

Need for more speed

To open the building by the end of 2014, let's assume they need all the modules by the first week in December (though that may give them too much slack).

That gives Forest City 170 working days, from yesterday, to deliver and install 819 additional modules. That suggests of 4.8 modules a day.

The pace has picked up in the last month, so the situation is clearly fluid. It would be premature to definitively say the building will be late.

But it's clearly behind, and that's part of a pattern. Last September, they nudged back the date to finish the building from the second to the fourth quarter of 2014.

The Summer 2014 completion date also appears in a 2/3/14 presentation by Robert Francis, Director, Innovation and Business Improvement at Skanska UK. (Skanska is Forest City Ratner's partner on FCS Modular.)

Also see some questionable statistics from Skanska regarding the project.

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