Brooklyn Paper: "Developers say proposed Coney Island casino would bring 4,000 new jobs." History shows not to trust such puffery.

From the Brooklyn Paper, 6/15/23, Developers say proposed Coney Island casino would bring 4,000 new jobs to the People’s Playground.

As they workshop their proposal to open a new casino in Coney Island, Thor Equities, the team of developers behind the bid, have announced they believe the new gaming facility would bring roughly 4,000 union jobs to the neighborhood.

According to Robert Cornegy, one of the partners on the pro-casino task force, the jobs would be within the hospitality, hotel and gaming realm, offering locals who have been detached from the ability to earn a decent wage year-round a chance to work 12 months out of the year in a “lucrative” industry.

Um, the "old" Brooklyn Paper, circa 2005, wouldn't have fallen for this. Yes, the new article does quote the local Community Board chair, who (logically) wants to know what percentage of jobs would go to locals and points out that some public housing residents may be wary that earnings over a certain threshold can be counterproductive.

But the record--including Atlantic Yards and other projects--shows that self-serving studies from project promoters typically take a best-case scenario and rarely work out as planned.

Words like "estimate," "anticipate," and "project" should be tied to calculations that can be tested by independent experts.

Moreover, "the hospitality, hotel and gaming realm" sounds like it includes spinoff jobs not created by the casino developer but by associated spending--another calculation subject to vetting.

If they want the contract based on those projections, there should be clawbacks if those projections aren't met.

And while Robert Cornegy is described as "one of the partners on the pro-casino task force," he also might be described as an employee hired to provide local credibility.

We've been down this road before.