So, those 130% Area Median Income (AMI) income-linked "affordable" units won't stay regulated forever, maybe just 35 years.

A May 2 article from The Real Deal comparing the new 485-x tax break with its predecessor, 421-a, contained this line: "Not only that, but 485x’s affordable units remain income-restricted forever, while 421a’s become market-rate when their tax break ends."

That was new to me. Surely that 35-year horizon--see Option C here--option is part of the long-term calculation for the builders of the four Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park buildings taking advantage of 421-a. And it's surely part of the calculation for potential sellers, or buyers.

The buildings contain a total of 592 income-linked "affordable" units: B15 (662 Pacific St., aka Plank Road), B3 (18 Sixth Ave., aka Brooklyn Crossing), and B12/B13 (595 Dean St.).

All those apartments were made available to households earning up to 130% of Area Median Income (AMI), and while the rents are hardly aimed at the neediest, they represent bargains compared to the market-rate units in the building.

Some will see stability

That Real Deal summary was not fully accurate, it turns out, because rent-stabilized tenants will not see their leases torn up.

To quote a July 8, 2019 issue brief from the law firm Holland and Knight:

The 2017 statute also established a new exemption program for buildings that were receiving the 20-year or 25-year exemption under the Old 421-a Program. This new program provided an additional 10-year or 15-year exemption in return for additional affordable units. All affordable units were under the Rent Stabilization Law for the additional exemption period and, thereafter, as under the Old 421-a Program, the tenant in occupancy at the expiration of the exemption has the right to remain until it chooses to vacate the unit and the unit remains in Rent Stabilization until such vacancy. When the affordable tenant vacates, the unit is no longer subject to regulation.

(Emphasis added)

So no residents will be evicted. By that time, it's possible that, in aging buildings, the market rents will have moderated, with less of a gap from the steadily--if modestly--rising "affordable" rents, limited by annual decisions of the Rent Guidelines Board.

Alternatively, if Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park takes 20+ more years to build, after 35 years the open space might still be relatively new and coveted, leading to higher valuations.

After all, it's a "never say never" project.