ANHD risk chart: threats to affordable housing rising citywide, including Crown Heights/Prospect Heights (Community District 8)

The Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development (ANHD), which includes non-profit affordable housing groups, recently released its 2022 Housing Risk Chart, which

highlights and ranks 19 indicators of risk to affordable housing in each of New York City's 59 community districts. Our annual analysis helps community-based groups, government officials, and other stakeholders determine where to direct resources to stabilize communities. The 2022 edition of ANHD’s Housing Risk Chart demonstrates the diverse and multifaceted threats to housing stability for communities of color, low-income households, immigrants, and other marginalized groups.

Near the bottom of the excerpt below, I've highlighted, in blue, Brooklyn Community Districts 2, 3, 6, and 8, the four CDs where residents have a 50% preference in the affordable housing lotteries that have a local preference. 

(Lotteries for buildings that take advantage of city subsidies/programs have the preference; those that rely only on the 421-a tax break do not. The latter include the two most recent Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park buildings, 18 Sixth Ave. and 662 Pacific St., and almost surely the next two, 615 Dean St./595 Dean St.)

A red shading indicates that that CD is in the top ten citywide for risk; an orange shading indicates that it's in the top 20; and a yellow (I think) means top 30.

Original research and analysis by ANHD. Annotations added. Click to enlarge.

Notably CD 8 is in orange, with 13 threats to affordable housing, while CD 2 and CD 3 are in yellow, with ten and nine threats, respectively. CD 6, with Park Slope, has only four threats.

Wait, is an area that includes Brooklyn Heights at more risk than Bedford-Stuyvesant? Well, CD 2 has rising rents, lots of new market-rate units, and challenges at New York City Housing Authority buildings. But I'm sure Bed-Stuy still has more--though ever diminishing--relatively affordable housing in apartments in small buildings/houses.

Not in top 20, but still dramatic

Note that I've highlighted in red, in the fifth column from the left, the percentage of Area Median Income (AMI) for each CD. While CD 3 and CD 6 are well above the regional average--the study uses 2020 figures, with 100% of AMI for a 4-person hoursehold at $113,700--CD 3 is at 61% of AMI and CD 8 at 70% of AMI. 

And those don't get a shading, which means other districts have far lower incomes. But it does mean that it's ever tougher for lower-income households to find decent housing in these neighborhoods, too.

Those figures are likely more dramatic today, given rising regional AMIs. As I wrote last month, for a 4-person household, 100% of AMI went from $119,300 in 2021 to $133,400 in 2022.

Similarly, I've highlighted in red some figures in the seventh column, indicating significant percentages of residents who are rent-burdened: CD 2, 40.1%; CD 3, 51.9%; CD 6, 35.8%; CD 8: 40.9%. 

Again, those don't get a shading, because other districts are far worse off. (Rent-burdened is defined as paying 30% or more of income towards gross rent.)

In top 20: focus on Bed-Stuy and Crown Heights/Prospect Heights

Separately, I've highlighted in yellow where these Community Districts get red or yellow annotations. Note the significant Housing Code violations in CDs 3 and 8. 

While the change in median gross rent is actually higher in CD 2 than CD 3, the former Community District has already long been gentrified, so I think the change in Bed-Stuy is more dramatic. Same for the numbers of new non-affordable units.

Also note the significant increase in CD 8, represented by Community Board 8, which includes Crown Heights and Prospect Heights, as well as much of the Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park footprint.

It also includes much but not all of the area around Atlantic Avenue dubbed M-CROWN, subject of a long-stalled rezoning push by CB 8 and subsequent spot rezonings. Now a broader zone around Atlantic Avenue is set to be studied for a rezoning.

The change in residential sale price per square foot, over just two or three years, is dramatic in CD 8: 47.1%. And while CD 8 remains in blue for the number of new, non-affordable units, the buildings under construction, as well as approved in spot rezonings, will add many more.

Also note significant foreclosure filings in CDs 3 and 8.

More on the study

From ANHD:

Made possible with discretionary funding from the New York City Council through their Community Housing Preservation Strategies Initiative (CHPSI), the 2022 Housing Risk Chart demonstrates the diverse and multifaceted threats to housing stability for communities of color, low-income households, immigrants, and other marginalized groups. The Risk Chart breaks down nineteen interconnected indicators related to COVID-19 risk and impact, neighborhood demographics, and threats to affordable housing for each of New York City's 59 community districts to inform targeted neighborhood-level action.

For over 15 years, through CHPSI, the New York City Council has supported two programs to ensure organizations across community districts can work in their neighborhoods to combat the loss of affordable housing in their community:

The Housing Preservation Initiative (HPI) directly addresses threats to each neighborhood’s affordable housing stock by working with community residents to create neighborhood-based solutions.

The Community Consultant Contract (CCC) supports front-line anti-displacement services and specialists who work with community residents and constituent services to fight evictions and foreclosures.

The Risk Chart makes clear the importance of targeted and individualized programs like HPI and CCC, which allow over 40 community-based organizations to work at a neighborhood level to address specific threats to affordable housing and housing stability.