Would Greenland develop Site 5 or sell development rights after new approvals? Well, they've sold (3.5 of) the last 4 sites. Why not Related? Or: Brodsky, TFC.

At a recent meeting of the advisory Atlantic Yards Community Development Corporation (AY CDC), Empire State Development was invited, in a curiously orchestrated sequence (link), to solicit a new plan for developing Site 5, catercorner to the arena, from current master developer Greenland USA.

Remember, in 2015-16, Greenland Forest City Partners--that's when original developer and joint venture partner Forest City was involved--proposed a giant, two-tower project at the site, currently occupied by the big-box stores P.C. Richard and the now-closed Modell's.

A 250-foot, 439,050-square foot tower had been approved, but the developer wanted to move the bulk from the unbuilt flagship tower, B1 (aka "Miss Brooklyn") across Flatbush Avenue to create a much larger project, up to 785 feet tall and 1,142,052 square feet.

Upcoming changes?

That pending plan likely would be further revised and likely expanded by Greenland USA--or, perhaps their new partner or successor, whoever that might be.

C'mon, the context has changed. Since then the Alloy Block, formerly 80 Flatbush, and the supertall Brooklyn Tower have since been approved and/or built, further changing the scale along Flatbush Avenue.

The Brooklyn Tower, now over 1,000 feet, was 775 feet and referred to as 340 Flatbush Avenue, in the screenshot below, from a 2016 Greenland presentation to the Department of City Planning

New approval

A new approval requires a public process, perhaps a year long, involving public outreach, public hearings, and inevitable approval by the board of Empire State Development (ESD), the state authority that oversees/shepherds the project.

Keep in mind the 2018 proposal by Jaime Stein, then a member of the AY CDC, that the advisory board hire its own planning, design, and construction consultants—not merely facilitators—to review the Site 5 proposal to inform the board and the public.

Greenland solo?

Yes, Greenland currently holds rights to the bulk of B1 and Site 5 and thus would (likely) have to steer the public process to get the project changed.

But would Greenland exercise those development rights? Very unlikely.

The pattern suggests Greenland would either sell the rights completely, once it has engineered a new approval for Site 5, or enter into a joint venture led by another development firm. Perhaps the latter firm could join them in pursuit of a new plan.

Consider the record for the last four towers built. Greenland sold development rights to the B12 and B13 sites, aka 595 Dean, to TF Cornerstone.

Greenland sold development rights to B15, aka 662 Pacific Street or Plank Road, to The Brodsky Organization.

And Greenland entered into a joint venture for B4, aka 18 Sixth Avenue or Brooklyn Crossing, with Brodsky on a near 50/50 basis. Though Greenland was said to be the majority partner, it let Brodsky, which has more local expertise, steer development and manage the building. Perhaps the percentage has since changed.

What next?

Greenland could have a new joint venture partner, or perhaps an agreement to sell development rights, when the new public process begins.

Some obvious suspects include TF Cornerstone and Brodsky, which already have experience developing at the Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park site, and know the market.

But a more likely one might be Related Companies, assuming that, as reported by The Real Deal, it's negotiating to take over the six railyard development sites facing a foreclosure auction for their rights.

That would allow them to avoid competing with their own product as towers are built over the railyard. And it would provide one point of coordination.

Yes, by parceling out development rights to different companies, that presumably spreads the risk. But Related is a more established company than Forest City, or Greenland, right?

Echoes of Time Warner Center?

From 2016 presentation

Moreover, the proposed two-tower project has more than a few echoes of the Related-built Time Warner Center in Manhattan, now known as Deutsche Bank Center.

For one thing, it would occupy a site now seen as underbuilt, at a hinge point between neighborhoods, and with the potential to serve as a flagship tower.

For another, the retail proposed at the podium of the building was once likened by a developer's rep to the Time Warner Center itself.

While residential and retail space seems likely, plus a reasonable chance for a hotel, to truly echo the Time Warner Center, the building would also have to contain office space, which seems unlikely. 

It also would have to contain an arts or nonprofit space akin to Jazz at Lincoln Center. That's not implausible. Stay tuned.