Monday, May 23, 2011

If there are 500 workers at AY site, how does that compare to official projections? Well, 1000+ jobs were promised to last over three years

There are 500 workers at the Atlantic Yards site, Forest City Ratner officials said last week, though there's no independent confirmation.

The total is difficult to trumpet since it’s so much smaller than the numbers promised, I wrote, prompting one observer to wonder: if the promised construction job figure was 10,000 job years (or 1000 jobs over ten years), wouldn't that mean that they are providing about half of the promised jobs?

Not at all.

Looking at the numbers

First, the current projected total is 17,000 job-years, up from the original 15,000. Those numbers, however, depend on a full build-out of the project, which is highly doubtful.

Second, the jobs were supposed to be concentrated in Phase 1, when the arena was under construction along with four towers. None of those towers is under construction as of now, and the first tower, Building 2, has been delayed and may be built via modular construction, which would significantly reduce jobs.

Job estimates

As I wrote 10/7/10, the Technical Memorandum issued in June 2009 by the Empire State Development Corporation (ESDC) offers quarter-by-quarter construction jobs estimates over an elapsed time of 13 years/

(Click on graphic to enlarge for clarity, and focus on Cur., for Current, as opposed to FEIS, which represents the numbers in the Final Environmental Impact Statement.)

Consider that, according to the latest official projections, there were supposed to be more than 1000 workers at the site over a period of 13 quarters, or more than three years. Presumably, the numbers will grow over the next year as arena construction continues, but then drop off.

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