Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Regarding TV revenues for Olympics (but not AY), sports economist Zimbalist offers caution: "Nothing goes up forever"

Remember, after a critical response to Andrew Zimbalist's report for Forest City Ratner was issued in in June 2004, the New York Times quoted the "sports economist for hire" (to quote the Times hockey blog) as saying, "I was very careful in my use of numbers."

Zimbalist's sunny predictions regarding the benefits of the Atlantic Yards project were premised on a ten-year buildout of the entire project, a timetable that then was not necessarily likely and that is now highly doubtful.

Yet Zimbalist, as with the governmental backers of the project, produced only one set of numbers rather than alternate scenarios incorporating changing conditions.

He should've known better.

He does know better.

Caution regarding Olympics

A 2/11/10 Los Angeles Times article headlined Tough sledding ahead for NBC in Games: The network forecasts red ink of $250 million, contains this passage:
NBC executives acknowledge their estimates for 2010 revenue were faulty. They expected continued advertising growth, not a recession that would hammer the economy and flatten ad budgets.

"Nothing goes up forever," said Andrew Zimbalist, an economist at Smith College.

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